Back value dating

There is no fixed rule about what weights the committee assigns to the various indicators, or about what other measures contribute information to the process.The committee concluded that the behavior of the quarterly series for real GDP and GDI indicates that the trough occurred in mid-2009.

The committee noted that in the most recent data, for the second quarter of 2010, the average of real GDP and real GDI was 3.1 percent above its low in the second quarter of 2009 but remained 1.3 percent below the previous peak which was reached in the fourth quarter of 2007.

Further, macroeconomic indicators are subject to substantial revisions and measurement error.

For these reasons, the committee refers to a variety of monthly indicators to choose the months of peaks and troughs.

Real GDP reached its low point in the second quarter of 2009, while the value of real GDI was essentially identical in the second and third quarters of 2009.

The average of real GDP and real GDI reached its low point in the second quarter of 2009.

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